BalanceCheat
ENDE

Handbook / Analyze

Triangular distribution

Describe bounded uncertainty using a minimum, most-likely value and maximum.

Methods and settings

Method / inputBehavior
Minimum ≤ Mode ≤ MaximumAll three values use the sampled quantity’s unit.

The mode is not the mean

Density rises toward the mode and falls toward the maximum. The mode can lie at an endpoint. The mean is (minimum + mode + maximum) / 3 before additional conditioning. An asymmetric range therefore generally has a mean different from its most-likely value. Equal endpoints make the distribution constant.

Synthetic asymmetric range

For an eligible absolute amount, minimum 80 EURk, mode 100 EURk and maximum 140 EURk imply a mean of approximately 106.67 EURk. The larger upside interval shifts the mean above the mode. In Deviation mode the same geometry applies to additive changes, so choose parameters in deviation units.

Compare with PERT

Additional absolute bounds condition the selected distribution and can alter its moments. Triangular is a continuous assumption, not a claim that three discrete outcomes occur. Use Discrete for explicit outcomes and probabilities. Use PERT when a smoother bounded shape around the most-likely value better expresses the intended uncertainty.

Open in the financial model ↗

Documents the current implemented behavior. Numerical examples are synthetic, not market assumptions.