Measure the cash risk of uncertain collection timing

Reconcile the dated cash window

Plan 1 covers 13 full ISO weeks from 2027-01-04 through 2027-04-04. Opening cash is EURk 50, opening receivables and carry-in are zero, invoices are EURk 100 weekly and payments EURk 90 weekly. Minimum Cash is EURk 20; automatic funding is off and available commitment is zero. EURk 1 means EUR 1,000 throughout.

At the 50% / 50% Base profile, week-one cash is 50 + 50 − 90 = 10. From week two, current and prior cohorts contribute 100 each week, so cash rises by 10 per week to 130. Lowest Cash is 10, below the floor by 10.

Sample one share and balance its companion

The first collection offset is Uniform(30,70) percentage points. The native paired-profile path sets the next-week share to 100% minus that draw. There is one sampled input, not two independently drawn percentages. Every cohort retains 100% of its amount.

For first-week share s in percent, Lowest Cash in EURk equals s − 40 in this fixture. Final-week invoices still leave 100 − s outside the window. The simulation neither deletes that carry-out nor changes canonical annual revenue of EURk 1,300. Other operational plans and the canonical workspace remain unchanged.

1. Open Plan 1 and choose Lowest Cash as the Analyze target.
2. In Stochastic, select collections profile offset W+0. Confirm its balancing W+1 companion.
3. Run Monte Carlo with Uniform 30–70%, seed 42, 5,000 runs and threshold below EURk 20.

Use the valid-run denominator

3717 of 5000 valid runs have Lowest Cash below EURk 20: 74.34%. Invalid runs: 0. This is the measured frequency under the supplied timing distribution, not an observed customer-default probability.

A quantile of Lowest Cash is not a quantile of ending cash. A positive ending balance does not cure an earlier shortfall. Here the first week is the trough by construction; that need not remain true after adding uneven payments or multiple timing rules.

Translate the result into a funding question carefully

Review the shortage dates, the cash floor and genuinely drawable facilities before proposing funding. Do not add Minimum Cash, a cash deficit and Required Funding when they describe overlapping needs. A new commitment only helps when the modeled access, maturity and draw rules allow it.

The repeated seeded run matched all samples and results. This verifies reproducibility, not empirical calibration or convergence. The current engine does not estimate customer default, infer correlation or guarantee access to external financing.

Related decisions and model reference

For adjacent questions: 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast: Build a Weekly Liquidity Plan; Available Liquidity vs Cash: Read the Funding Bridge; Monte Carlo Financial Model: Configure, Run and Check Results; P10, P50 and P90 in Financial Models: Read the Convention First.

For the exact controls and source behavior, use 13-Week Cash Flow and Business-line collection profiles.