Uploaded / public · Published 2026-10-19

Synthetic Valuation Works — football field

A connected comparison of DCF, synthetic trading multiples and synthetic acquisition multiples.

AnnualDCFTrading ComparablesPrecedent TransactionsFootball Field

EURk · Base · Model horizon: 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31

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Football Field · Base

DCF · Base

Trading Comparables · Base

Precedent Transactions · Base

Annual · Base

Income statement · Annual
Metric	2026 Actual	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Revenue (EURk)	12,000	12,960	13,996.8	15,116.54	16,325.87	17,631.94
Cost of goods sold (EURk)	-6,960	-7,516.8	-8,118.14	-8,767.6	-9,469	-10,226.52
Gross profit (EURk)	5,040	5,443.2	5,878.66	6,348.95	6,856.86	7,405.41
Other operating income (EURk)	0	0	0	0	0	0
SG&A (EURk)	-2,280	-2,462.4	-2,659.39	-2,872.14	-3,101.91	-3,350.07
Depreciation & amortization (EURk)	-540	-540	-540	-540	-540	-540
EBITDA (EURk)	2,760	2,980.8	3,219.26	3,476.81	3,754.95	4,055.35
EBIT (EURk)	2,220	2,440.8	2,679.26	2,936.81	3,214.95	3,515.35
Interest expense (EURk)	-150	-150	-150	-150	-150	-150
Earnings before tax (EURk)	2,070	2,290.8	2,529.26	2,786.81	3,064.95	3,365.35
Taxes (EURk)	-517.5	-572.7	-632.32	-696.7	-766.24	-841.34
Net income (EURk)	1,552.5	1,718.1	1,896.95	2,090.1	2,298.71	2,524.01
Revenue growth (%)	8	8	8	8	8	8
Gross margin (%)	42	42	42	42	42	42

Cash flow · Annual · EURk
Metric	2026 Actual	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Change in receivables	-116.89	-126.25	-136.35	-147.25	-159.03	-171.76
Change in inventory	-87.57	-94.58	-102.15	-110.32	-119.14	-128.67
Change in payables	60.74	65.6	70.84	76.51	82.63	89.24
Change in other working capital	4.44	4.8	5.18	5.6	6.05	6.53
D&A add-back	540	540	540	540	540	540
Other non-cash items	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow from operations	1,953.21	2,107.67	2,274.48	2,454.64	2,649.21	2,859.35
Capital expenditure	-780	-780	-780	-780	-780	-780
Cash flow from investing	-780	-780	-780	-780	-780	-780
Debt issuance	0	0	0	0	0	0
Debt repayment	0	0	0	0	0	0
Revolver draw / (repayment)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dividends paid	-310.5	-343.62	-379.39	-418.02	-459.74	-504.8
Cash flow from financing	-310.5	-343.62	-379.39	-418.02	-459.74	-504.8
Change in cash	862.71	984.05	1,115.09	1,256.62	1,409.47	1,574.55
Free cash flow	1,173.21	1,327.67	1,494.48	1,674.64	1,869.21	2,079.35

Balance sheet · Annual · EURk
Metric	2026 Actual	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Cash & Cash Equivalents	3,022.71	4,006.76	5,121.85	6,378.48	7,787.95	9,362.49
Accounts receivable	1,578.08	1,704.33	1,840.68	1,987.93	2,146.96	2,318.72
Inventory	1,182.25	1,276.83	1,378.97	1,489.29	1,608.43	1,737.11
Accounts payable	819.95	885.54	956.38	1,032.89	1,115.53	1,204.77
Other current assets	180	194.4	209.95	226.75	244.89	264.48
Other current liabilities	240	259.2	279.94	302.33	326.52	352.64
Long-term debt	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000
Required revolving funding	0	0	0	0	0	0
Property, plant & equipment	6,240	6,480	6,720	6,960	7,200	7,440
Other non-current assets	360	360	360	360	360	360
Other non-current liabilities	120	120	120	120	120	120
Total current assets	5,963.04	7,182.32	8,551.45	10,082.44	11,788.23	13,682.8
Total assets	12,563.04	14,022.32	15,631.45	17,402.44	19,348.23	21,482.8
Book equity	8,383.1	9,757.58	11,275.13	12,947.22	14,786.19	16,805.39
Total liabilities & equity	12,563.04	14,022.32	15,631.45	17,402.44	19,348.23	21,482.8

Modeling Rationale

The sample is designed to explain method differences and selection effects, not to estimate a real market valuation.

Key assumptions

Trading peers: EV / EBITDA 7x, 8x, 9x, 10x, 11x. Acquisitions: 8x, 9x, 10x, 11x, 12x. DCF where selected: WACC 11%, growth 2%, exit multiple 11x. All transaction dates and values are invented.

Notes

Entirely synthetic data for a fictional company. No real issuer or market data. Exercise: Exclude an observation and compare the median and mean; for Football Field compare all selected valuation ranges.

Published inputs and structure

Input data uses full functional-currency amounts. Rates retain their native percentage convention. Result tables state their display units in the caption or beside each metric.

Calendar

Calendar (4)

Actual Years

Calculation

annual

Fiscal Year End

fiscalYearEnd (2)

Day: 31
Month: 12

Start Year

2026

This line currently uses the existing Simple assumptions.

This line currently uses the existing Simple assumptions. (6)

Calendar

calendar (2)

Actual Years: 1
Start Year: 2026

Currency

EUR

Name

Synthetic Valuation Works

Opening debt

opening (13)

Accounts payable: 759208.52359209
Accounts receivable: 1461187.2146119
Total assets: 11242526.636225
Cash & Cash Equivalents: 2160000
Long-term debt: 3000000
Equity Value: 7141095.890411
Inventory: 1094672.7549467
Other current assets: 166666.66666667
Other current liabilities: 222222.22222222
Other non-current assets: 360000
Other non-current liabilities: 120000
Property, plant & equipment: 6000000
Revenue: 11111111.111111

Type

industrial

Year view

years (6)

0 (13)

Capital expenditure: 780000
Depreciation & amortization: 540000
Long-term debt: 3000000
Days inventory outstanding: 62
Days payable outstanding: 43
Days sales outstanding: 48
Gross margin: 42
Revenue growth: 8
Interest rate: 5
Dividend payout / net income: 20
Revenue: 12000000
SG&A / revenue: 19
Tax rate: 25

1 (20)

Ar Adjustment: 0
Capital expenditure: 780000
Depreciation & amortization: 540000
Long-term debt: 3000000
Days inventory outstanding: 62
Days payable outstanding: 43
Days sales outstanding: 48
Equipment Purchase: 0
Extra DA: 0
Extra Dividend: 0
Gross margin: 42
Revenue growth: 8
Interest rate: 5
Inventory Adjustment: 0
Dividend payout / net income: 20
Revenue: —
Scenario Borrowing: 0
Scenario Repayment: 0
SG&A / revenue: 19
Tax rate: 25

2 (20)

Ar Adjustment: 0
Capital expenditure: 780000
Depreciation & amortization: 540000
Long-term debt: 3000000
Days inventory outstanding: 62
Days payable outstanding: 43
Days sales outstanding: 48
Equipment Purchase: 0
Extra DA: 0
Extra Dividend: 0
Gross margin: 42
Revenue growth: 8
Interest rate: 5
Inventory Adjustment: 0
Dividend payout / net income: 20
Revenue: —
Scenario Borrowing: 0
Scenario Repayment: 0
SG&A / revenue: 19
Tax rate: 25

3 (20)

Ar Adjustment: 0
Capital expenditure: 780000
Depreciation & amortization: 540000
Long-term debt: 3000000
Days inventory outstanding: 62
Days payable outstanding: 43
Days sales outstanding: 48
Equipment Purchase: 0
Extra DA: 0
Extra Dividend: 0
Gross margin: 42
Revenue growth: 8
Interest rate: 5
Inventory Adjustment: 0
Dividend payout / net income: 20
Revenue: —
Scenario Borrowing: 0
Scenario Repayment: 0
SG&A / revenue: 19
Tax rate: 25

4 (20)

Ar Adjustment: 0
Capital expenditure: 780000
Depreciation & amortization: 540000
Long-term debt: 3000000
Days inventory outstanding: 62
Days payable outstanding: 43
Days sales outstanding: 48
Equipment Purchase: 0
Extra DA: 0
Extra Dividend: 0
Gross margin: 42
Revenue growth: 8
Interest rate: 5
Inventory Adjustment: 0
Dividend payout / net income: 20
Revenue: —
Scenario Borrowing: 0
Scenario Repayment: 0
SG&A / revenue: 19
Tax rate: 25

5 (20)

Ar Adjustment: 0
Capital expenditure: 780000
Depreciation & amortization: 540000
Long-term debt: 3000000
Days inventory outstanding: 62
Days payable outstanding: 43
Days sales outstanding: 48
Equipment Purchase: 0
Extra DA: 0
Extra Dividend: 0
Gross margin: 42
Revenue growth: 8
Interest rate: 5
Inventory Adjustment: 0
Dividend payout / net income: 20
Revenue: —
Scenario Borrowing: 0
Scenario Repayment: 0
SG&A / revenue: 19
Tax rate: 25

Objects

Objects (0)

Driven by Advanced Model

Driven by Advanced Model (0)

Valuation

Valuation (6)

Trading Comparables

comps (10)

Basis

reported

Bridge

bridge (9)

Cash & Cash Equivalents: —
Gross debt: —
Investments: 0
Leases: 0
Minority: 0
Non Operating Assets: 0
Other: 0
Pension: 0
Shares: —

Bridge Period

2026

Groups

—

Metric

ebitda

Override

—

Peer Period

LTM

Peers

peers (5)

Seed peer 0

seed-peer-0 (4)

seed-peer-0

Included in Fully Diluted

true

Name

Fictional Peer A

Periods

periods (1)

LTM

LTM (3)

EBITDA: 2400000
Enterprise Value: 16800000
Revenue: 12000000

Seed peer 1

seed-peer-1 (4)

seed-peer-1

Included in Fully Diluted

true

Name

Fictional Peer B

Periods

periods (1)

LTM

LTM (3)

EBITDA: 2400000
Enterprise Value: 19200000
Revenue: 12000000

Seed peer 2

seed-peer-2 (4)

seed-peer-2

Included in Fully Diluted

true

Name

Fictional Peer C

Periods

periods (1)

LTM

LTM (3)

EBITDA: 2400000
Enterprise Value: 21600000
Revenue: 12000000

Seed peer 3

seed-peer-3 (4)

seed-peer-3

Included in Fully Diluted

true

Name

Fictional Peer D

Periods

periods (1)

LTM

LTM (3)

EBITDA: 2400000
Enterprise Value: 24000000
Revenue: 12000000

Seed peer 4

seed-peer-4 (4)

seed-peer-4

Included in Fully Diluted

true

Name

Fictional Peer E

Periods

periods (1)

LTM

LTM (3)

EBITDA: 2400000
Enterprise Value: 26400000
Revenue: 12000000

Statistic

median

Target Period

2027

DCF

dcf (16)

Basis

reported

Bridge

bridge (9)

Cash & Cash Equivalents: —
Gross debt: —
Investments: 0
Leases: 0
Minority: 0
Non Operating Assets: 0
Other: 0
Pension: 0
Shares: —

Bridge Period

2026

Convention

mid-year

End date (exclusive)

2031

Groups

—

Other FCF

otherFCF (0)

Start date

2027

Stub

true

Tax Mode

unlevered

Terminal

terminal (14)

Capex Rate: —
Da Rate: —
EBIT margin: —
EBITDA margin: —
Free cash flow: —
Revenue growth: 2
Calculation method: pg
Metric: ebitda
Multiple: 11
Normalize: false
Nwc Rate: —
Other: 0
Revenue Growth: —
Tax rate: —

Terminal After

2031

Terminal Year

2031

Valuation Date

2027-01-01

Wacc

wacc (12)

Beta: —
Cost Debt: —
Country: 0
Debt Value: —
Debt Weight: —
Equity Value: —
Erp: —
Other: 0
Override: 11
Risk Free: —
Size: 0
Tax rate: —

Wacc Sources

waccSources (3)

Average invested capital (€): input
Cost Debt: input
Tax rate: input

Enabled

enabled (5)

Trading Comparables: true
DCF: true
LBO: false
Precedent Transactions: true
Summary: true

Precedent Transactions

precedents (10)

Basis

reported

Bridge

bridge (9)

Cash & Cash Equivalents: —
Gross debt: —
Investments: 0
Leases: 0
Minority: 0
Non Operating Assets: 0
Other: 0
Pension: 0
Shares: —

Bridge Period

2026

Groups

—

Metric

ebitda

Override

—

Statistic

median

Synergy Adjusted

false

Target Period

2027

Transactions

transactions (5)

Seed deal 0

seed-deal-0 (13)

Control Premium: —
Date: 2025-03-15
EBIT: —
EBITDA: 2500000
Equity Value: —
Enterprise Value: 20000000
Id: seed-deal-0
Included in Fully Diluted: true
Name: Fictional Acquisition A
Net debt: —
Premium: —
Revenue: 13000000
Synergies: —

Seed deal 1

seed-deal-1 (13)

Control Premium: —
Date: 2025-04-15
EBIT: —
EBITDA: 2500000
Equity Value: —
Enterprise Value: 22500000
Id: seed-deal-1
Included in Fully Diluted: true
Name: Fictional Acquisition B
Net debt: —
Premium: —
Revenue: 13000000
Synergies: —

Seed deal 2

seed-deal-2 (13)

Control Premium: —
Date: 2025-05-15
EBIT: —
EBITDA: 2500000
Equity Value: —
Enterprise Value: 25000000
Id: seed-deal-2
Included in Fully Diluted: true
Name: Fictional Acquisition C
Net debt: —
Premium: —
Revenue: 13000000
Synergies: —

Seed deal 3

seed-deal-3 (13)

Control Premium: —
Date: 2025-06-15
EBIT: —
EBITDA: 2500000
Equity Value: —
Enterprise Value: 27500000
Id: seed-deal-3
Included in Fully Diluted: true
Name: Fictional Acquisition D
Net debt: —
Premium: —
Revenue: 13000000
Synergies: —

Seed deal 4

seed-deal-4 (13)

Control Premium: —
Date: 2025-07-15
EBIT: —
EBITDA: 2500000
Equity Value: —
Enterprise Value: 30000000
Id: seed-deal-4
Included in Fully Diluted: true
Name: Fictional Acquisition E
Net debt: —
Premium: —
Revenue: 13000000
Synergies: —

Summary

summary (2)

Basis

Calculated outputs

outputs (4)

EBITDA

comps.ebitda (3)

Enabled: true
Label
Order: 2

Exit Multiple · Exit Multiple

dcf.exit (3)

Enabled: true
Label
Order: 1

Perpetuity Growth · Perpetuity Growth

dcf.pg (3)

Enabled: true
Label
Order: 0

EBITDA

precedents.ebitda (3)

Enabled: true
Label
Order: 3

Version

Report model

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Synthetic Valuation Works — football field

Football Field · Base

DCF · Base

Trading Comparables · Base

Precedent Transactions · Base

Annual · Base

Modeling Rationale

Key assumptions

Notes

Report model

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