Solve a financial-model target with bounded Goal Seek

1. Start from a funded, reproducible model

Download the synthetic Goal Seek model. It includes the operating forecast, LBO assumptions and saved Reverse configuration. Monetary display is EURk: 1 EURk = EUR 1,000. The changing input is a multiple and IRR is a percentage, so neither is scaled by the currency display.

The example has annual periods, entry in 2026 and exit in 2031. Revenue is 4,000 EURk, COGS 2,000 EURk, SG&A 400 EURk and EBITDA 1,600 EURk each year. D&A and capex are each 200 EURk, tax rate is 25%, exit multiple is 8×, entry debt is 4× EBITDA at 5% cash interest and the cash sweep is 50%. The file holds all other assumptions fixed.

The native endpoint IRRs are 44.6481% at 5× entry and 5.8536% at 9×. The reachable 25.25% target was chosen by rounding the midpoint of those calculated outputs. This compact example demonstrates the solve, not a complete investment recommendation.

2. Specify the target and writable source

1. Import the file intentionally. Open Advanced mode, Deals → LBO, and choose Reverse in Analyze.
2. Confirm the target LBO IRR and the variable LBO Entry Multiple. Use the native assumption, not an analysis-only EBITDA adjustment.
3. Set Goal to “=” and 25.25%. Bound Entry Multiple from 5× to 9×. There are no additional constraints in this one-variable case.
4. Under Advanced, use goal tolerance 0.0001 percentage points, maximum 200 evaluations, 200 iterations and 3 starting points. These are the saved example settings.
5. Solve, read the achieved IRR and changed input, then open Preview. Check the financing and return outputs before choosing Apply solution.

3. Distinguish a solution from the closest tested result

A target of 1,000% IRR with the same bounds does not produce a solution. The native run returns closest-feasible: the closest constraint-feasible candidate misses the Goal. The interface shows “No feasible solution,” “Closest result” and “Not reached.” Read those messages together; the candidate is not a successful target solve.

4. Preview is a review step; Apply is a separate choice

The solve evaluates detached model snapshots. Preview displays the proposed model without committing assumptions. In this example the entry multiple is writable, so the complete candidate can be applied. Apply writes the listed assumptions as one undoable change.

Analysis-only intermediate shocks may be previewed but cannot be silently applied as native assumptions. A changed model makes the result stale and requires a new solve. A closest result also needs explicit review; applying it does not make an unmet Goal achieved.

Bounds describe the search, not the entire feasible world

A bounded numerical search does not prove global optimality or mathematical infeasibility. Check the permitted range, available sources, constraints, validity and evaluation budget before concluding that a business target is impossible.

If more than one input or a derived financing constraint matters, read Goal Seek vs Solver. For exact behavior, see Goal Seek, result status and Preview / Apply. The existing entry and exit multiple case explains the forward return relationship.